Market Analysis

This morning Bitcoin kept oscillating near its 50-day moving average, around $81.8k. That line, since about October 8–9, has become the support Bitcoin keeps pulling back to and leaning on. As of today, October 23, it still has not been broken. Since October 2, Bitcoin is down roughly 3%. Over the same window, the Nasdaq 100 fell about 4% and the semiconductor index (SOX) dropped 14% [1]. Look back one more round: from June 22 to July 29, Bitcoin was essentially flat while the Nasdaq fell 10% and SOX fell 29% [1]. ...

Overnight, Bitcoin suddenly rallied. A single candle of more than 7% shot straight from the 81k zone to 87k, marking a new high for this rebound that began in late August. The market erupted in celebration. Some pounded their chests over missed opportunities, some scrambled to reposition, some smugly patted themselves on the back. This move was a pure cascade of short liquidations — what is commonly called a short squeeze. ...